Mastercard (MA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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• Mastercard Move has 17 billion+ endpoints globally

  80% confidence

• FX volatility is super hard to predict, with Q4 2025 and January 2026 seeing record low levels

  80% confidence

• Mastercard switched more than 175 billion transactions in 2025

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 rebates as contra percentage of payment network assessments expected flat to slightly down sequentially versus Q4 2025

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 tax rate guidance is 19-20%

  80% confidence

• Consumer and business spending remains healthy as of early 2026

  80% confidence

• CCCA faces very united opposition, with benefits yet to be proven while risks are clear, creating race to the bottom for cheapest network option not safest, posing cybersecurity risk

  80% confidence

• FX volatility well below historical norms in late Q4 2025 and month-to-date January 2026

  80% confidence

• Payment network revenue grew 9% year-over-year in Q4 2025 on a currency-neutral basis

  80% confidence

• Cross-border card-not-present (excluding travel) impacted in early Q1 2026 by prior-year crypto purchase growth comparisons

  80% confidence

• Net revenue grew 15% year-over-year in Q4 2025 on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis, with acquisitions contributing 1 percentage point

  80% confidence

• Capital One renewed credit partnership with Mastercard becoming network for large portion of newly acquired credit accounts with VAS expansion across business

  80% confidence

• VAS growth broad-based with high-teens organic growth across Asia Pacific, EMEA, and Americas, and across all services product areas except other solutions

  80% confidence

• Cross-border card-not-present (excluding travel) declined sequentially Q4 2025 vs Q3 2025 due to lapping Europe share wins and higher prior-year crypto purchases

  80% confidence

• Yapi Credi migrating approximately 10 million consumer credit, debit, and affluent cards to Mastercard network in Turkey

  80% confidence

• Tax rate guidance for full year 2026 is 20-21% on a non-GAAP basis

  80% confidence

• Cross-border volume grew 14% year-over-year in Q4 2025

  80% confidence

• Switch transactions grew 10% year-over-year in Q4 2025

  80% confidence

• Cross-border assessments grew 17% year-over-year in Q4 2025 with volume growing 14%, with delta from international pricing offset by mix

  80% confidence

• US GDV grew 4% in Q4 2025 with credit up 6% and debit up 2%

  80% confidence

• Apple Card continues as exclusive Mastercard network and transitions to JPMorgan Chase as issuer in approximately 24 months

  80% confidence

• Operating expenses grew 12% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with 5 percentage points from acquisitions and approximately 5.5 percentage point benefit from government grants

  80% confidence

• VAS net revenue grew 21% reported and 18% organic (excluding acquisitions) for full year 2025

  80% confidence

• One-time restructuring charge of approximately $200M expected in Q1 2026, excluded from non-GAAP results

  80% confidence

• 60% of VAS revenues are network linked, benefiting from transaction growth and tokenization

  80% confidence

• H1 2026 revenue growth expected lower than H2 2026 due to tougher FX volatility comparisons in first half

  80% confidence

• Value-Added Services (VAS) net revenue grew 22% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with acquisitions contributing approximately 3 percentage points and organic growth approximately 19%

  80% confidence

• Operating income grew 17% year-over-year in Q4 2025 with 1 percentage point headwind from acquisitions

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 net revenue growth guidance is low end of low double-digit range with 3.5-4% FX tailwind

  80% confidence

• Operating expense growth guidance for full year 2026 is low end of low double-digit range with 0.5-1 percentage point FX headwind

  80% confidence

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