LIVE: Reeves to deliver spring statement as traders scale back Bank of England rate cut bets

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• The spring statement comes amid a mixed economic backdrop. Inflation has fallen and government borrowing costs have eased, but unemployment has risen and the growth outlook has weakened.

  80% confidence

• This government has the right economic plan for our country in a world that has become yet more uncertain. Stability in the public finances, investment in infrastructure and reform to our economy.

  80% confidence

• Stubbornly high oil and gas prices could impact economies around the world. Specifically, they could be inflationary and disrupt plans to cut interest rates.

  80% confidence

• The forecasts could be the least important development of the day

  80% confidence

• The conflict in Iran has pushed up oil and gas prices and disrupted shipping routes. If it persists, it will raise household bills and business costs in the months ahead, putting renewed upward pressure on inflation – and potentially interest rates.

  80% confidence

• A subdued growth outlook is expected, and the OBR may sound a warning on the unemployment rate. A rapid increase in unemployment could hurt the UK's fiscal outlook and the amount of available headroom.

  80% confidence

• The conflict raises the spectre of stagflation. While energy prices are nowhere close to the levels seen during the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, investors will probably be keeping a close eye on the extent and duration that energy supplies will be disrupted.

  80% confidence

• Open up the North Sea immediately to combat soaring energy prices

  80% confidence

• The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has held several nail-biting votes in recent months, and conflict could complicate things further. For now, however, there is no certainty around what will happen to energy supplies or what this means for the global economy.

  80% confidence

• 2026 would be the year the public began to see the benefits of Labour's policies

  80% confidence

• The main economic consequence of higher energy prices would be to boost inflation. In the UK, illustratively, the current level of the oil price would, if maintained, add about 0.2 percentage points to headline inflation via higher petrol prices; and a sustained 40% shift up in natural gas price futures would boost this by a further 0.7 percentage points or so, via higher household utility bills.

  80% confidence

• The conflict in the Middle East has increased the wholesale cost of petrol and diesel, which will mean pump prices will have to go up. Rising fuel prices hurt the economy by driving higher inflation, impacting already hard-pressed household budgets.

  80% confidence

• Average household bills will fall by £117 from April and remain at that level for the following three months

  80% confidence

• My economic plan is the right one for Britain

  80% confidence

• Chancellor should abandon planned fuel duty increases to help motorists and businesses

  80% confidence

• This year's spring statement is gearing up to be a low-key affair, with chancellor Rachel Reeves set to keep her pledge to restrict big policy changes to the autumn budget.

  80% confidence

• With debt still unsustainably high, the priority for the chancellor should be to build a credible medium-term plan to put the public finances on a more resilient path, with debt falling as a share of the economy over time.

  80% confidence

• Because of the decisions we have already taken, we have a stronger and more secure economy. Inflation and interest rates are falling. And in every part of Britain, working people are better off.

  80% confidence

• With real fears that prices at the pump are now set to soar because of the situation in the Middle East, instead of stubbornly doubling down, the chancellor needs to scrap her price hike plans before motorists face a devastating double hit.

  80% confidence

• There could be some good news on the public finances, with borrowing for this fiscal year expected to be slashed by 20%

  80% confidence

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